Research Proves Global Warming Models Wrong

          

 By Richard Boren   

There is new research (review of it attached) which you may want to pass along to anyone who has been persuaded that (1) humans are causing the planet to warm, (2) this will have a disastrous effect, and (3) we should try to do something about it such as passing Cap and Trade legislation, installing subsidized wind and solar power plants, buying hybrid cars, CFL bulbs and so forth.   The more scientifically-oriented of you can go right to the attachment.  The article begins at the bottom of the first page. Others may choose to read the rest of this e-mail.

 

Everyone should understand that it is NOT a proven fact that humans have any effect on the climate.  However, the media and some politicians treat it that way.  Those who say that "the science is settled" are just plain wrong.  Even Mr. Gore, if pressed, would have to admit that the predictions of warming are 100% the result of computer models. That's right, 100%.  It's all a prediction somewhat like predicting the weather, only much, much, harder.

 

The people making these computer models insert the known facts.  They also insert various assumptions of how these facts will interact with one another, coming up with what they hope will be a model of the climate that will produce accurate predictions.  Those assumptions mean everything, and now the research proves that they are wrong.  And not just a little wrong.  It turns out that the assumptions are exactly backwards.

 

At the risk of using a dated computer expression, don't forget that it's still true that Garbage In = Garbage Out (GIGO).  Have you ever worked with a computer spreadsheet?  Have you ever inserted your estimates of future revenue and expenses and seen how  a few little changes here and there can result in either huge profits or devastating losses?  You might, for example, realize that at 3% revenue growth you'll go broke in four years, but at 7% you'll be a billionaire in six years.  It's hard to be objective in those circumstances, especially if you have investors.  In the case of the climate modelers, virtually all of them are funded by grants designed to study the climate "problem."  No problem, no grant.  No fame either.  No political power.  Objectivity can be difficult to maintain. 

 

The computer models on which all of the fears are based rely on the assumption that carbon dioxide (CO2), a weak greenhouse gas, will trigger something called positive feedback which will amplify its weak effect, causing the effect to grow and grow.  (Positive feedback here is not the same thing as getting compliments about your job performance.  In this case, it means that when more of something happens it triggers even more of it to happen, with a snowballing effect.)  The climate models on which the current fears are based all assume that this positive feedback will occur. Without this assumed positive feedback, no human-caused global warming will occur.  Without the positive feedback assumption, the predictions of the models wouldn't scare anyone.

 

The good news for the planet is that instead of having to make feedback assumptions there is now real data, and it shows that in the real world the feedback is negative. This means that the warming effect of CO2 triggers an effect that offsets it.  Therefore, all of the models are wrong. In plain English, this means that increased CO2 will not warm the planet. Whoopee! You can read more about this in the attached newsletter, Access to Energy, with the article beginning at the bottom of the first page. (I've been a subscriber for over 30 years.)  For more background, and what you should do, please read on.

 

As most of us know, Earth has warmed by about 1 degree over the last century.  It has been much warmer in the past, and we are still here.  It has been much colder in the past and we are still here.  Today we are in one of the better heat ranges.  Of course, at some point it would be too hot to sustain life as we know it. 

 

As most of us also know by now, carbon dioxide (CO2) is a "greenhouse" gas.  That means that it tends to trap the sun's heat in the atmosphere rather than allowing it to escape into space.  CO2 is what humans and all animals exhale after breathing in oxygen.  It is also what is produced when we burn so-called fossil fuels like wood, coal and petroleum products.  No one doubts the benefits of the energy we get from these inexpensive sources.  Furthermore, plants need CO2.  Increased CO2 has greatly improved the growth of plants and trees.  However,  a legitimate concern is whether there is a serious or even catastrophic downside because of CO2's greenhouse effect.  Studying this issue has been the right thing to do to.

 

CO2 is a relatively minor greenhouse gas, which means that its effect in and of itself is small.  There is not much of it in the atmosphere, about 300-400 parts for every million parts of air.  However, we are adding to it at a fairly good rate.  Given the economic realities, there is virtually no chance that countries like China and India are going to stop or even slow down very much.  To hear some people tell it, the very existence of mankind is threatened. That is, of course, unless we here in America turn our lives upside down and spend trillions of dollars on more expensive energy.  That will apparently convince the rest of the world to do the same.  Well, maybe not, but at least we'll be "green" --  green and poor.  Have you ever noticed that the poor people of the Third World don't care about being "green?"  Food and shelter come first.

 

President Obama has advisors who are committed to the belief that humans are causing global warming and that we need to stop it.  Their mantra is "the science is settled."  I do not believe that they are intellectually honest.  Why else do they refuse every offer to debate the scientific issues?  Why do they resort to name-calling rather than dealing with the evidence? They will never admit that they are wrong, and Obama is not going to hear anything else. The information in the attachment is not going to get to him. Can you imagine Al Gore walking into the Oval office and saying, "Mr. President, there is new evidence on global warming.  It turns out that I was wrong.  There's no problem. We don't have to do anything about it." 

 

It has been said that Al Gore is going to make a billion dollars off of cap and trade.  In my view he would deserve to make even more if he actually helped save the planet.  But he and the others who stand to make money or wield political power don't want to hear the good news.   And they won't unless you and others do something about it.  Last Friday, Glenn Beck interviewed Christopher Monckton, who briefly presented what I've discussed above.  This is probably the largest exposure this will get in the mass media.  If this troubles you, please tell others, including your elected representatives.  Spread the word: the sky is not falling.

 

 

Ministry of Fear

 

by Lance Thompson

 

Barack Obama rode to the presidency on a tidal wave of campaign enthusiasm, famously promising Hope and Change.  Instead, his administration has been governed by Fear and Loathing.

 

The arguments for Obama’s health care reform bill–ten pages shy of two thousand pages at last count–have all used fear.  Twenty million Americans are without health insurance, we are told, then 32 million, then 47 million.  If we don’t pass this massive, indecipherable bill, insurance will be unaffordable, you will go broke if you get sick, millions will die.  Prescription drug companies, insurance companies, doctors and hospitals who question the grand prophecies of the bill’s proponents are told that if they protest this massive takeover of one sixth of the economy, they will be punished with retributive amendments and strangled by federal regulation. 

 

The cap and trade bill was sold in the same way.  If we don’t hobble our industries with restrictions and regulations, the Earth will grow warm, ice caps will melt, polar bears will starve, coastal cities will be inundated.  Carbon dioxide, a gas all animals exhale, is now a toxic substance that must be regulated as well.  We are all polluters, and we must literally be saved from ourselves.

 

The stimulus bill passed on fear and panic.  If we don’t pump $800 billion into the economy within a week, the market will crash, millions will lose their jobs, your savings will vanish, your home will be foreclosed, you will be living in an appliance box under the freeway.

 

The federal government took over banks, auto companies, Wall Street firms, this time applying the voice of terror to the corporate officers and boards of directors.  If you don’t agree to a government takeover, your pay will be cut, your pensions cancelled, your stock made worthless.  Go along with us, or the full weight of the federal government will be used to crush you.

 

What the Obama administration cannot convince us to fear, they loathe.

 

The administration loathes our international allies.  The White House significantly recharacterized the “special relationship” we’ve had with Great Britain since World War II to a “special partnership,” putting our English cousins at arm’s length. We observe diplomatic niceties with Iran, Libya and leaders of Hamas while warning the Israelis we may shoot down their jets if they do the world a favor and knock out Ahmadinejad’s nukes.  The French, whose relationship with the United States warmed when Sarkozy took over, are snubbed when Obama is too busy to meet with the French President on a European trip.  Taiwan and Japan look for backup from us against North Korean missile launches, but we scarcely can find the time to lodge a half-hearted protest.  The Obama administration holds our allies in contempt.

 

The administration loathes a free press.  They like the main stream media, as long as they are Obama-worshiping cheerleaders and not impartial referees.  But if Fox posts a critical story, the administration attacks them, and threatens to cut off access to top officials.  When the Associated Press found last week that the White House had overstated stimulus-created jobs by 5,000, the White House immediately attacked the wire service.   If a conservative commentator lambasts the administration, he is discredited, insulted, and prevented from engaging in his right to enter a bid on a football franchise.

 

Most of all, the Obama administration loathes America.  They despise its military power, so often used to defend against tyranny and aggression.  They are ashamed of its capitalistic system and economic strength, though both are inspirations for the world.  They dismiss the independent spirit, the individual liberty, and the unlimited opportunity that characterize the American dream.  Instead, they believe in an all-powerful state that redistributes wealth, picks winners and losers in the private sector, and takes over companies and entire industries by fiat.  .

 

The Obama team’s loathing for America becomes more evident every day, as more and more administration officials are shown to be involved in corrupt organizations like ACORN, sympathetic to or adherents of communism, or enablers of terrorists foreign and domestic. 

 

The fear weapon also has a limited term.  Just as Al Gore’s shrieking alarms of global warming become less and less credible with passing time and lowering temperatures, so will all the dire predictions the Obama administration uses to run up massive debt, pass nationally destructive legislation, and appoint subversives to positions of power.  The case that only government can save us from catastrophe becomes harder to prove each day, as government itself is clearly shown to be the greatest danger we face.  When Americans become wary of their government, then the Obama administration will find that fear is a two-edged sword, and an irresistible motive for change.  Or so we hope.

The Economy Falls

 by Lance Thompson

 

The Dow passed to the good side of 10,000 last week, and celebration was widespread because it was heralded as a sign of better times ahead.  As early as May 27, Treasury Secretary and Turbo Tax tyro Timothy Geithner said the US economy was in the early stages of recovery, and in late August announced “We are back from the brink.”  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, the financial equivalent of the Magic 8 Ball, has been saying since March that “signs point to recovery.” Administration spokesmen point to improving home sales, rising stock prices, and make-work jobs programs and credit the stimulus spending for curing the economy from its ills.  They conveniently overlook the virus of unemployment, the contagion of home foreclosures, or the consumptive decline of the dollar’s value. 

 

Here in Idaho, one of our state’s favorite outdoor activities is white water rafting.  The confidence of the various predictors of economic recovery reminds me of a raft full of people that has just gone through a particularly turbulent stretch of river.  After overcoming the challenge of the rapids, they find that the white water subsides, the surface appears smooth, and all are thankful they prevailed over adversity.

 

Yet if this raft was full of economists, and the river was the American economy, they serenely overlook what’s waiting downriver–a waterfall of staggering height which will make the rapids they’ve passed seem insignificant.  The waterfall cannot be passed safely–it is the dead end of a wild ride on the tracherouis waters of financial tumult.

 

The waterfall is the staggering debt that has been amassed with the government bailouts and spending initiatives that began with the TARP bill under President Bush and grew geometrically with President Obama’s stimulus bill, and subsequent massive government programs.  The spending that under Obama has eclipsed that of all previous administrations combined has multiplied the American debt to a level beyond possible repayment.  To ignore this downstream hazard and speak of economic recovery is to blindfold oneself to reality.
 
The government cannot create wealth, a fact which will probably come as a great surprise to Obama supporters who believe in his ability to provide largesse at a whim.  But all the money the government spends and distributes has to come from the American people and American business.  Government consumes wealth, but it is up to us to produce it. The more the government spends, the more we must produce, and the more of it we must surrender to the government through taxes. 

 

So the debt must some day be repaid by us, just as the economic raft must eventually reach the waterfall.  But with each new trillion-dollar spending initiative–health care, cap and trade, or any other massive government program–the waterfall gets higher.  As our economy floats downriver on a temporarily smooth current, there is no cause for complacency.  In fact, our fate grows more dire with each addition to the debt.

 

Unfortunately, we have not yet had to pay the price for this debt.  It will come with the sudden impact of higher taxes–the only way the government can take the wealth from those who produce it.  And those taxes will fall upon all of us–income taxes, consumption taxes, property taxes, fees and licenses will all be raised, and all of us will pay them.  At that point, the economic raft will be over the edge and plunging into the abyss of fiscal ruin.  The damage to our economy, our industry, and our system of government will be too massive to reverse. 

 

So when you hear happy prospects of a recovery that is just around the corner, listen more carefully.  You’ll hear in the background the distant but growing rumble of the coming fall.  As spending multiplies, as the debt continues to grow, as government persists in hobbling our private sector with takeovers and punishing regulation, the roar of the cataract will also grow.  At some point it will be louder than those who are telling us not to worry.  The question is, which sound will we listen to, and which will we believe?

Last to Know

By  Lance Thompson

“You’re always the last to know your own reputation.”  I can’t be certain that I coined that phrase, but I am sure that it is an underlying principle of the universe, and even presidents are bound by its laws.

 

I first noticed the principle in Hollywood, where no matter how washed up a has-been some one is, no one will ever say it to his or her face.  One whose future is past is still welcomed, just not that warmly.  His calls are still taken, at least for a while.  He still goes to parties, but he’s no longer on the A-list.  As the has-been begins to notice the lukewarmness of his receptions, the increasing distance of his close pals, he seeks reassurance from those around him.  They will tell him that he’s imagining things, that he’s as cool as he ever was, that he’s still on top of the world.  Until those reassuring friends also stop returning calls.

 

Barack Obama is still sailing along on the certainty that he’s the coolest world leader on Earth.  He won an historic election, the media was solidly behind him, adoring crowds greet him wherever he goes, and only a few cranky right-wing commentators and tea partiers dare to rain on his parade.

 

But as Charles Krauthammer and others have revealed, Obama knew of Iran’s perfidy in concealing their nuclear program when he spoke at the United Nations on 24 September.   Despite the urging of European allies, he refused to bring up the uncomfortable subject, as it would detract from his speech.  The focus of the speech–Obama’s dream for a nuclear free world.  He still spun his no-nukes platitudes, knowing full well that one of the most dangerous regimes in the world was inches from deploying a nuclear weapon.  France’s President Sarkozy, England’s Prime Minister Brown, Germany’s President Merkel all wanted to use the international forum to expose Iran’s decades of deceit, but Obama postponed until the G-20 summit.  Obama’s refusal showed his weakness of character and selfishness of motive.

 

Last week’s presidential sales call on the International Olympic Committee, complete with first lady, cabinet officials, and the other Big O, was also exposed as a failure when it was announced Chicago was the first of the finalist cities to be out of the running for 2016.  Obama received the news on his way home.  Political pundits assumed that Obama had an agreement in hand before he departed, since a president would certainly not risk the prestige of the office to play door-to-door salesman unless he already had a sure thing.  He did not, and the whole trip was basically a slow lap around the Atlantic in Air Force One.  Even minor symbolic rewards seem to be beyond the once irresistible president–and the world noticed.

 

During his campaign, Obama identified the war in Afghanistan as the war we should have been fighting, the one that was vital to our nation’s interests.  He promised increased troop levels, greater efforts, more resources in this vital fight.  Then last month, General Stanley McChrystal, Obama’s choice to command our forces in Afghanistan, revealed that he had had exactly one conversation, lasting less than an hour, with the Commander-in-Chief since Obama took office.  Obama’s profound disinterest in the war, in our troops, in the stakes involved could not have been more clearly demonstrated. 

 

These and countless other examples of fecklessness and incompetence on Obama’s part have caused his approval ratings to steadily decline, along with support for his health care reform and global warming initiatives.  Each day, it seems, brings another revelation about corruption in Obama’s community organizing alma mater, ACORN; another expose on a communist appointed to the fitting position of czar; or another announcement of a betrayal of an ally or the appeasement of a foe. 

 

People across the country and around the world are taking Obama’s measure–those who cheered his election as well as those who did not.  But more and more are coming to the inescapable conclusion that he is a self-important neophyte playing at being a world leader, and falling far short of mere competence. 

 

No one who serves at the pleasure of the president will tell him this, for his ego is fragile and fiercely protected.  But one day, perhaps soon, Obama will begin to notice the crowds thinning, the media coverage becoming less adulatory, the poll numbers sinking too low to dismiss.  And he will look around, seeking assurance that he’s still the coolest guy in the room.  But by then the room will be empty, and no one will be returning his calls.

What A Character

 

by Lance Thompson

 

A nation’s character, like that of an individual, is determined by many factors.  Among these are promises kept, principles upheld, ideals embodied and sacrifices made.  Under the Obama administration, our national character has suffered in all these categories, most recently in regard to the cancellation of the missile defense system our nation previously pledged to erect in Poland and Czechoslovakia.  The system was designed to guard against attack by potential enemies with nuclear-capable missiles. When the installation was planned, only Russia qualified as such a potential enemy, but now Iran is also a member of the nuclear bully club.  The anti-missile system offered proven and advanced defensive technology to friendly nations who did not have the means to defend themselves against more powerful enemies.

 

The Obama administration last week announced that they would renege on this agreement.  Obama said that instead of the promised stationary defense system, the United States would offer a new, untried, high-tech, mobile sea-based system sometime in the indefinite future.  The announcement came on the same day that the IAEA issued a report that Iran was capable of producing a nuclear weapon.

 

When the Obama administration pulled the rug out from under Poland and Czechoslovakia, they placed allies in danger–not just the two nations in question, but all of Europe, which would have enjoyed the protection of the system.  Withdrawing our protection from Poland and Czechoslovakia is a tacit admission that we will not come to their aid in any substantial way if they are threatened or attacked.  We have abandoned them to the mercy of merciless enemies.

 

Both nations must be experiencing a bad case of deja vu.  In World War II, Poland was allied with England and France.  Both countries agreed to come to Poland’s aid in the event of attack by another nation.  On 1 September, 1939, Poland was attacked from the west by Hitler’s Germany and from the east by Stalin’s Russia.  British and French troops were alerted and mobilized, but none came to the aid of Poland, which was overrun and subdued in a matter of days.  After the war, the Soviets, who had taken all of Poland in their drive against Germany, broke their agreement to allow self-government in the occupied country, and Poland became part of the Soviet bloc.

 

In Czechoslovakia in 1948, when it looked like the communists were going to lose the upcoming election, they staged a coup to take over the government.  Thereafter, the communists purged the Czech military of non-communist officers and reorganized the Czech government along Soviet lines.  (“Purge” does not mean that these patriotic Czechs resigned, went to school on the GI Bill, and found other work in the private sector.  They were imprisoned or murdered.)  Czechoslovakia became a stalwart member of the Warsaw Pact.  Still, there remained much anti-communist resistance among the Czech people, and in 1968 the Soviet Union invaded with half a million troops, neutralizing the Czech military and making Czechoslovakia a submissive Soviet satellite.  The West did not interfere, and the Czechs lived under communist government until 1990 when communist influence crumbled, and Czechs had their first free election since 1946.

 

Now, Poland and Czechoslovakia have again been abandoned by a powerful ally.  Why?  The anti-missile system has long been a sore point with the Russians, the potential aggressors it was originally designed to deter.  President Obama has a meeting scheduled with Putin and Medvedev shortly.  It has been this administration’s policy to unilaterally make concessions in advance of any meeting with rivals, only to get nothing in return but more demands for concessions. 

 

Under Obama, our nation broke its promise to defend Poland and Czechoslovakia from missile attack, violated the principles of diplomacy by making this decision unilaterally without consulting the nations whose security it threatens, turned its back on the ideal of defending democracy around the world, and did so on the basis of fiscal economy and diplomatic spinelessness

 

Meanwhile, every American ally must be wondering who will be next to be abandoned by the Obama administration.  Under Obama, American promises mean nothing, our principles are expedient, our ideals for sale, and our allies cannot depend on us.

 

Obama campaigned on a promise to restore American prestige in the world.  Instead, he has irreparably damaged the character of the American nation by replacing it with his own.